FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.31 – 107.49

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.9 ±11.2

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 8.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 108.28Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 23.32Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.7 ±12.2

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 67.04Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 30.88Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 9.57Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10029, 234, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 234, 7657

Auto

20.8 15%

Teleop

60.9 45%

Endgame

54.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6498, 4485, 9453

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6498, 4485, 9453

Auto

31.2 32%

Teleop

49.5 51%

Endgame

16.2 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.3pts

Blue projected score107.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.8
Score range: 82–165
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 141.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.9Season APEX213.7

20.8Auto31.2

60.9Teleop49.5

54.6Endgame16.2

17Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	34
teleop	74	76
endgame	48	24
foul	0	0
total	143	134

Result

Final score

143 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.