FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.72 – 208.98

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.1 ±11

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 35.53Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 5.21Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 55.98Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.9 ±11.2

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 34Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 97.36Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 77.62Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1747, 9554, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1747, 9554, 4926

Auto

20.7 21%

Teleop

50.3 50%

Endgame

29.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5188, 761, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

209 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5188, 761, 447

Auto

33.3 16%

Teleop

126.5 60%

Endgame

49.8 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.7pts

Blue projected score209pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.3
Score range: 72–234
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.1Season APEX371.9

20.7Auto33.3

50.3Teleop126.5

29.1Endgame49.8

74Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	22
teleop	64	89
endgame	24	88
foul	0	30
total	117	229

Result

Final score

117 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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