FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.52 – 177.34

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.2 ±10.7

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 36.04Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 72.05Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 36.43Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±11.7

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 28.24Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 24.52Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 124.58Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8430, 1720, 8742

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 1720, 8742

Auto

27.8 19%

Teleop

90.8 64%

Endgame

24.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 9790, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9491, 9790, 3940

Auto

32.0 19%

Teleop

109.8 66%

Endgame

24.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.5pts

Blue projected score177.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.8
Score range: 119–203
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.2Season APEX234.8

27.8Auto32

90.8Teleop109.8

24Endgame24.1

49Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	46
teleop	43	73
endgame	47	22
foul	0	0
total	122	141

Result

Final score

122 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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