FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.31 – 165.55

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.1 ±11.7

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 31.43Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 1.66Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 83.22Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.8 ±9.3

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 39.04Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 75.23Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 51.28Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4485, 7198, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4485, 7198, 8116

Auto

22.5 20%

Teleop

58.5 52%

Endgame

30.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7617, 868, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7617, 868, 5484

Auto

21.2 13%

Teleop

68.7 43%

Endgame

68.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.3pts

Blue projected score165.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.2
Score range: 90–192
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.1Season APEX396.8

22.5Auto21.2

58.5Teleop68.7

30.6Endgame68.9

74Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	34
teleop	41	126
endgame	30	22
foul	0	0
total	101	182

Result

Final score

101 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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