FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.93 – 31.11

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.7 ±12.4

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 106.73Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 6.19Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 4.01Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.1 ±13.3

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 1.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 24.36Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 5.72Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 2197, 3559

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 2197, 3559

Auto

21.9 19%

Teleop

58.0 49%

Endgame

37.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10029, 5188, 9453

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 5188, 9453

Auto

24.5 68%

Teleop

24.0 67%

Endgame

-12.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score31.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.8
Score range: 5–143
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 143.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.7Season APEX122.1

21.9Auto24.5

58Teleop24

37.7Endgame-12.7

109Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	56	24
endgame	38	7
foul	0	15
total	111	65

Result

Final score

111 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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