FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.54 – 88.81

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 7.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.7 ±9.3

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 27.81Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 116.71Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 71.02Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201 ±11.7

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 32.23Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 35.99Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 20.59Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9491, 761, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9491, 761, 1720

Auto

27.1 13%

Teleop

131.6 62%

Endgame

53.9 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1747, 8742, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1747, 8742, 7657

Auto

7.2 8%

Teleop

47.4 54%

Endgame

32.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.5pts

Blue projected score88.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.7
Score range: 63–242
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.7Season APEX201

27.1Auto7.2

131.6Teleop47.4

53.9Endgame32.8

20Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	18
teleop	155	42
endgame	22	35
foul	10	0
total	225	95

Result

Final score

225 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 7.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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