FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.29 – 155.85

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

118 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.9 ±11.2

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 26.25Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 66.65Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 40.39Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.7 ±9.9

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 69.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 77.67Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 8.3Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9790, 6498, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9790, 6498, 8430

Auto

26.2 21%

Teleop

64.4 53%

Endgame

31.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 868, 8116, 9554

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 868, 8116, 9554

Auto

19.2 13%

Teleop

80.1 53%

Endgame

50.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.3pts

Blue projected score155.9pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.6
Score range: 107–182
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 142.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.9Season APEX391.7

26.2Auto19.2

64.4Teleop80.1

31.7Endgame50.8

66Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	14
teleop	41	110
endgame	17	84
foul	20	0
total	118	208

Result

Final score

118 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.