FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.39 – 183.75

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.4 ±10.5

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX -4.45Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 45.37Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 40.47Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±11

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 76.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX -8.8Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 116.01Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9453, 4926, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 4926, 5484

Auto

27.7 35%

Teleop

48.8 61%

Endgame

3.0 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 7198, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 447, 7198, 3940

Auto

39.6 22%

Teleop

107.3 59%

Endgame

35.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.4pts

Blue projected score183.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.4
Score range: 56–209
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.4Season APEX274

27.7Auto39.6

48.8Teleop107.3

3Endgame35.1

88Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	58
teleop	76	154
endgame	40	74
foul	0	5
total	158	291

Result

Final score

158 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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