Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
195.18 – 176.35
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
169 – 146
Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 44.96Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64Event APEX 42.28Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 107.94Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±11.2
Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 112.73Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 56.25Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 7.37Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1747, 5484, 3940
78
/ 100 compatProjected
195.2 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 1747, 5484, 3940
Auto
33.1 18%
Teleop
106.2 56%
Endgame
49.1 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 761, 7617, 3559
71
/ 100 compatProjected
176.4 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 761, 7617, 3559
Auto
24.9 14%
Teleop
99.5 58%
Endgame
47.9 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.48
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score195.2pts
Blue projected score176.4pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample132alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 18.8
- Score range
- 149–222
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
299.7Season APEX344.4
33.1Auto24.9
106.2Teleop99.5
49.1Endgame47.9
110Consistency90
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 5 | 22 |
| teleop | 102 | 76 |
| endgame | 62 | 48 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 169 | 146 |
Result
Final score
169 – 146
Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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