FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.25 – 0

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.8 ±8.7

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 65.28Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 113.12Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 46.85Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111 ±13.3

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -8.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 2.05Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -2.44Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 761, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 868, 761, 8430

Auto

25.2 12%

Teleop

126.6 58%

Endgame

65.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10029, 2197, 9554

/ 100 compat

Projected

-8.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 2197, 9554

Auto

18.4 0%

Teleop

-18.7 100%

Endgame

-2.2 88%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.3pts

Blue projected score-8.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 225.3
Score range: -25–250
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.8Season APEX111

25.2Auto18.4

126.6Teleop-18.7

65.3Endgame-2.2

48Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	123	44
endgame	109	0
foul	0	0
total	248	67

Result

Final score

248 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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