FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.53 – 228.55

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

214 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.3 ±11.7

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 23.09Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 111.54Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 41.9Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.8 ±9.3

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 68.9Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 81.59Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 78.06Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5188, 3940, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5188, 3940, 4926

Auto

43.8 24%

Teleop

103.8 58%

Endgame

31.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 8116, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 447, 8116, 1720

Auto

42.1 19%

Teleop

122.9 54%

Endgame

62.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.5pts

Blue projected score228.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52
Score range: 152–254
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 474 vs event baseline 136.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.3Season APEX410.8

43.8Auto42.1

103.8Teleop122.9

31.4Endgame62.5

57Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	50
teleop	140	157
endgame	18	48
foul	0	5
total	214	260

Result

Final score

214 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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