FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.63 – 82.57

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±11.7

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -11.76Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 58.76Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 2.63Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.4 ±11.2

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -8.76Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 41.1Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 50.23Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9554, 868, 3559

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 868, 3559

Auto

13.1 29%

Teleop

6.9 15%

Endgame

25.6 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10029, 1747, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 1747, 8430

Auto

7.7 10%

Teleop

35.7 45%

Endgame

36.1 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.6pts

Blue projected score82.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.9
Score range: 25–108
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 138.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.6Season APEX161.4

13.1Auto7.7

6.9Teleop35.7

25.6Endgame36.1

131Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	20
teleop	66	43
endgame	31	14
foul	0	0
total	104	77

Result

Final score

104 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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