FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.57 – 150.38

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.1 ±12.4

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 48.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 37.3Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 5.67Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.3 ±11.7

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 37.63Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 0.1Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 112.65Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5484, 9790, 2197

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5484, 9790, 2197

Auto

26.6 29%

Teleop

63.0 68%

Endgame

3.0 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8742, 9453, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8742, 9453, 234

Auto

26.4 17%

Teleop

92.9 59%

Endgame

36.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.6pts

Blue projected score150.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.8
Score range: 67–175
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.1Season APEX223.3

26.6Auto26.4

63Teleop92.9

3Endgame36.9

129Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	13	92
endgame	12	26
foul	20	0
total	62	136

Result

Final score

62 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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