FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.95 – 55.99

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 104 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.7 ±9.8

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 57.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 88.59Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 60.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193 ±12.8

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 14.92Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 27.51Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 13.56Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 3940, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

207 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1720, 3940, 6498

Auto

45.3 22%

Teleop

109.7 53%

Endgame

53.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 4485, 5188

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9491, 4485, 5188

Auto

25.6 45%

Teleop

44.8 78%

Endgame

-13.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207pts

Blue projected score56pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151
Score range: 31–232
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 136.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.7Season APEX193

45.3Auto25.6

109.7Teleop44.8

53.4Endgame-13.2

60Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	22
teleop	198	84
endgame	56	33
foul	30	0
total	332	139

Result

Final score

332 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 104 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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