FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.52 – 168.27

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.3 ±9.3

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 21.03Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 103.03Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 80.46Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219 ±11

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 12.59Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 88.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 66.97Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7657, 761, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7657, 761, 8116

Auto

35.1 18%

Teleop

120.2 60%

Endgame

43.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7198, 447, 7617

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7198, 447, 7617

Auto

31.7 19%

Teleop

86.7 51%

Endgame

50.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.5pts

Blue projected score168.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.3
Score range: 144–229
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 135.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.3Season APEX219

35.1Auto31.7

120.2Teleop86.7

43.8Endgame50.8

39Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	28
teleop	117	24
endgame	104	30
foul	5	0
total	246	82

Result

Final score

246 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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