Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
75.62 – 103.55
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
80 – 90
Prediction correct · off by 9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.6 ±12.8
Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -5.55Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 32.52Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 48.65Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.6 ±10.7
Season APEX 64Event APEX 62.76Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 35.8Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 4.99Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3559, 9790, 4926
50
/ 100 compatProjected
75.6 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 3559, 9790, 4926
Auto
15.9 22%
Teleop
30.3 42%
Endgame
26.1 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5484, 8430, 10029
54
/ 100 compatProjected
103.6 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 5484, 8430, 10029
Auto
16.1 16%
Teleop
50.3 50%
Endgame
33.3 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.66
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score75.6pts
Blue projected score103.6pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample132alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -27.9
- Score range
- 51–129
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
179.6Season APEX136.6
15.9Auto16.1
30.3Teleop50.3
26.1Endgame33.3
170Consistency77
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 26 | 19 |
| teleop | 38 | 49 |
| endgame | 16 | 22 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 80 | 90 |
Result
Final score
80 – 90
Prediction correct · off by 9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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