FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.14 – 62.49

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.1 ±11.2

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 19.55Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 34.71Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 59.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.2 ±11.7

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX -2.58Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 60.53Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 4.54Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4485, 1747, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4485, 1747, 868

Auto

3.3 3%

Teleop

62.9 58%

Endgame

42.5 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9453, 1720, 2197

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 1720, 2197

Auto

29.5 49%

Teleop

19.7 33%

Endgame

10.4 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.1pts

Blue projected score62.5pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.7
Score range: 37–139
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.1Season APEX291.2

3.3Auto29.5

62.9Teleop19.7

42.5Endgame10.4

90Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	27
teleop	67	38
endgame	49	7
foul	30	0
total	161	72

Result

Final score

161 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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