FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.72 – 182.73

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.1 ±12.2

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 23.13Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 31.77Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 13.82Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.8 ±9.3

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 92.56Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 56.15Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 34.02Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8742, 7657, 9453

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8742, 7657, 9453

Auto

17.8 26%

Teleop

32.5 48%

Endgame

17.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8116, 4926, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8116, 4926, 8430

Auto

36.5 20%

Teleop

95.9 52%

Endgame

53.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.7pts

Blue projected score182.7pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114
Score range: 42–210
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 151.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.1Season APEX262.8

17.8Auto36.5

32.5Teleop95.9

17.3Endgame53.7

57Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	35
teleop	24	98
endgame	11	36
foul	0	0
total	50	169

Result

Final score

50 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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