Qualification · Qualification 19
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
133.23 – 161.98
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
188 – 187
Prediction missed · off by 39.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.7 ±11.7
Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -3.1Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 83.05Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 53.28Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.5 ±10.4
Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 82.92Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 15.52Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 63.54Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5188, 447, 6498
63
/ 100 compatProjected
133.2 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5188, 447, 6498
Auto
45.4 34%
Teleop
59.7 44%
Endgame
30.0 22%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3940, 7657, 7617
78
/ 100 compatProjected
162 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 3940, 7657, 7617
Auto
32.4 20%
Teleop
80.7 50%
Endgame
49.9 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.7
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score133.2pts
Blue projected score162pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample132alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -28.7
- Score range
- 109–186
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Combined score 375 vs event baseline 135.8.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
257.7Season APEX291.5
45.4Auto32.4
59.7Teleop80.7
30Endgame49.9
104Consistency162
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 47 | 39 |
| teleop | 110 | 85 |
| endgame | 31 | 58 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 188 | 187 |
Result
Final score
188 – 187
Prediction missed · off by 39.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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