FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.94 – 134.02

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.1 ±11.2

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 122.31Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 12.2Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 36.43Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.8 ±10.5

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 92.42Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 41.58Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 0.02Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 9491, 8742

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 9491, 8742

Auto

35.6 20%

Teleop

106.6 61%

Endgame

32.8 19%

Strengths

· 234 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 761, 4926, 7198

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 4926, 7198

Auto

29.4 22%

Teleop

77.8 59%

Endgame

25.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.9pts

Blue projected score134pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.9
Score range: 110–195
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.1Season APEX351.8

35.6Auto29.4

106.6Teleop77.8

32.8Endgame25.4

86Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	133	115
endgame	59	53
foul	0	5
total	212	198

Result

Final score

212 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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