FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.48 – 100.48

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.9 ±10.7

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 62.59Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 58.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX -5.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.6 ±11.7

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 6.15Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 66.28Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4485Tribe Tech Robotics

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 28.05Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8116, 5484, 3559

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8116, 5484, 3559

Auto

16.0 14%

Teleop

52.6 45%

Endgame

47.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9554, 1720, 4485

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 1720, 4485

Auto

31.4 31%

Teleop

51.0 50%

Endgame

18.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.5pts

Blue projected score100.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16
Score range: 76–140
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 132.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.9Season APEX336.6

16Auto31.4

52.6Teleop51

47.3Endgame18.7

135Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	14
teleop	106	50
endgame	13	19
foul	0	0
total	152	83

Result

Final score

152 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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