Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
145.54 – 63.97
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
114 – 128
Prediction missed · off by 47.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.6 ±10.5
Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 13.6Rank 25Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 49.9Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 82.04Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 56.53Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 19.09Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -11.65Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9453, 8430, 447
74
/ 100 compatProjected
145.5 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 9453, 8430, 447
Auto
32.8 23%
Teleop
83.5 58%
Endgame
28.7 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7617, 1747, 5188
48
/ 100 compatProjected
64 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 7617, 1747, 5188
Auto
16.7 26%
Teleop
29.3 46%
Endgame
18.0 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.1
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score145.5pts
Blue projected score64pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample132alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 81.6
- Score range
- 40–170
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
193.6Season APEX239.6
32.8Auto16.7
83.5Teleop29.3
28.7Endgame18
189Consistency121
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 19 |
| teleop | 69 | 75 |
| endgame | 14 | 34 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 114 | 128 |
Result
Final score
114 – 128
Prediction missed · off by 47.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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