FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.62 – 199.3

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 319

Prediction missed · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.3 ±11.2

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 68.32Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 102.02Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 29.28Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.9 ±9.3

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 90.74Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 40.94Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 67.62Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 3940, 8742

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 868, 3940, 8742

Auto

11.2 6%

Teleop

109.9 56%

Endgame

73.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 234, 6498, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 6498, 761

Auto

45.8 23%

Teleop

106.1 54%

Endgame

46.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.6pts

Blue projected score199.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.3
Score range: 177–222
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.3Season APEX432.9

11.2Auto45.8

109.9Teleop106.1

73.9Endgame46

87Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	46
teleop	125	188
endgame	37	85
foul	0	0
total	204	319

Result

Final score

204 – 319

Prediction missed · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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