FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.18 – 138.66

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 117.3 ±12.2

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 26.77Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 4.1Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX -10.69Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±12.4

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 59.1Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 19.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 60.07Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2197, 7657, 7198

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 7657, 7198

Auto

11.0 64%

Teleop

-5.2 0%

Endgame

11.4 66%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9790, 10029, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9790, 10029, 8116

Auto

31.9 24%

Teleop

79.4 59%

Endgame

23.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.2pts

Blue projected score138.7pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.5
Score range: -3–162
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

117.3Season APEX147.5

11Auto31.9

-5.2Teleop79.4

11.4Endgame23.6

178Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	23
teleop	5	48
endgame	11	23
foul	0	5
total	40	99

Result

Final score

40 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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