FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.61 – 201.26

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 83.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488 ±8.7

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 33.22Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 46.32Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 48.07Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.1 ±10.7

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 54.58Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3559Thundercats

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 37.1Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 109.58Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 5484, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 5484, 1720

Auto

17.2 13%

Teleop

66.3 52%

Endgame

44.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8430, 3559, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8430, 3559, 234

Auto

28.5 14%

Teleop

95.4 48%

Endgame

75.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.6pts

Blue projected score201.3pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.6
Score range: 105–224
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 125.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488Season APEX213.1

17.2Auto28.5

66.3Teleop95.4

44Endgame75.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	21
teleop	158	82
endgame	48	57
foul	5	0
total	253	160

Result

Final score

253 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.