FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.7 – 88.08

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 36.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.1 ±11.7

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 21.2Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 62.17Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 32.33Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.1 ±12.8

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 43.85Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8742Argyll Attack

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 20.88Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 23.35Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1747, 447, 2197

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1747, 447, 2197

Auto

17.0 15%

Teleop

59.5 52%

Endgame

37.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9790, 8742, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9790, 8742, 6498

Auto

16.2 20%

Teleop

31.9 38%

Endgame

34.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score88.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.6
Score range: 66–138
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 124.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.1Season APEX185.1

17Auto16.2

59.5Teleop31.9

37.6Endgame34.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	29
teleop	67	89
endgame	42	22
foul	0	0
total	136	140

Result

Final score

136 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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