FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.6 – 120.68

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.2 ±11

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -0.11Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 10.08Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 3.63Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.5 ±11.7

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 24.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 2.48Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 94.14Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9491, 9554, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9491, 9554, 7657

Auto

11.6 100%

Teleop

-3.0 0%

Endgame

-0.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5188, 7198, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5188, 7198, 868

Auto

15.6 14%

Teleop

49.3 44%

Endgame

48.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score13.6pts

Blue projected score120.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.1
Score range: -10–145
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 133.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.2Season APEX326.5

11.6Auto15.6

-3Teleop49.3

-0.6Endgame48.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	15	17
endgame	3	8
foul	0	5
total	36	44

Result

Final score

36 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.