FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.96 – 128.01

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 108.7 ±12.2

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 2.74Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 29.35Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -0.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±12.2

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 14.4Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 82.42Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 31.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7198, 9491, 10029

/ 100 compat

Projected

32 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7198, 9491, 10029

Auto

15.5 58%

Teleop

8.7 32%

Endgame

2.6 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9554, 6498, 5188

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9554, 6498, 5188

Auto

30.2 25%

Teleop

61.7 51%

Endgame

30.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96
Score range: 5–155
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 151.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

108.7Season APEX209.1

15.5Auto30.2

8.7Teleop61.7

2.6Endgame30.2

51Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	34
teleop	1	7
endgame	5	4
foul	0	0
total	16	45

Result

Final score

16 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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