FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.94 – 214.16

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.2 ±9.3

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 110.4Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 29.38Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 92.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±10.5

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 105.84Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 1.58Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 106.74Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 7657, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 7657, 868

Auto

27.4 12%

Teleop

127.7 57%

Endgame

70.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 234, 7198, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 7198, 3940

Auto

37.9 18%

Teleop

114.6 54%

Endgame

58.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.9pts

Blue projected score214.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.8
Score range: 187–259
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 562 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.2Season APEX295.5

27.4Auto37.9

127.7Teleop114.6

70.6Endgame58.6

4Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	52
teleop	168	143
endgame	102	61
foul	15	0
total	306	256

Result

Final score

306 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Match videos

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