FIN District Washington Event presented by Toyota IN & VU CARA

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.6 – 217.52

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.2 ±9.3

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 112.94Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 31.99Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 94.67Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±10.5

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 106.82Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7198Fearsome Gears

Season APEX 26.7Event APEX 2.75Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 107.95Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 7657, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 761, 7657, 868

Auto

25.5 11%

Teleop

132.8 56%

Endgame

78.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 234, 7198, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 7198, 3940

Auto

34.1 16%

Teleop

114.3 53%

Endgame

67.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score239.6pts

Blue projected score217.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample132alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.1
Score range: 191–267
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.2Season APEX295.5

25.5Auto34.1

132.8Teleop114.3

78.2Endgame67.6

0Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	52
teleop	92	107
endgame	45	13
foul	5	5
total	164	177

Result

Final score

164 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 58.1 pts

Match videos

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