Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.68 – 134.96

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±10.4

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 87.68Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 73.45Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 37.55Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.5 ±9.3

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 71.68Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 14.07Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 49.21Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 447, 829, 45

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 447, 829, 45

Auto

37.0 19%

Teleop

113.9 58%

Endgame

45.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3176, 135, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

135 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3176, 135, 3494

Auto

21.8 17%

Teleop

82.0 65%

Endgame

22.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.7pts

Blue projected score135pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 111–223
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 131.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323Season APEX419.5

37Auto21.8

113.9Teleop82

45.7Endgame22

3Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	31
teleop	127	111
endgame	75	53
foul	20	5
total	246	200

Result

Final score

246 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Match videos

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