Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.09 – 153.03

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.1 ±11.2

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 44.83Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 36.01Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 24.25Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.6 ±10.5

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 70.64Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 64.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 17.48Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1646, 5484, 328

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1646, 5484, 328

Auto

20.9 21%

Teleop

52.0 53%

Endgame

25.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1024, 5402, 3147

/ 100 compat

Projected

153 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1024, 5402, 3147

Auto

39.2 28%

Teleop

77.4 55%

Endgame

25.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.1pts

Blue projected score153pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.9
Score range: 82–176
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 227 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.1Season APEX405.6

20.9Auto39.2

52Teleop77.4

25.6Endgame25

20Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	45
teleop	49	57
endgame	14	26
foul	0	5
total	94	133

Result

Final score

94 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts

Match videos

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