Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.14 – 128.14

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

145 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.5 ±9.3

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 73.28Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 14.41Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 50.45Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.3 ±10.5

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 62.21Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 24.16Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 41.77Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3176, 135, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3176, 135, 3494

Auto

14.7 12%

Teleop

84.5 67%

Endgame

27.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 461, 71, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 461, 71, 5010

Auto

22.9 19%

Teleop

73.6 62%

Endgame

23.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.1pts

Blue projected score128.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10
Score range: 105–161
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 128.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.5Season APEX414.3

14.7Auto22.9

84.5Teleop73.6

27.8Endgame23.1

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	30
teleop	79	145
endgame	23	57
foul	10	5
total	145	237

Result

Final score

145 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 pts

Match videos

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