Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.45 – 109.25

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.3 ±9.8

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 3.11Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 138.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 142.5Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.1 ±11.2

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 46.27Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 24.69Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 38.29Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10434, 3940, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 3940, 1501

Auto

70.5 25%

Teleop

144.6 52%

Endgame

63.1 23%

Strengths

· 1501 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1646, 328, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1646, 328, 5484

Auto

20.5 20%

Teleop

55.7 55%

Endgame

24.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score284.5pts

Blue projected score109.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.2
Score range: 86–307
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.3Season APEX271.1

70.5Auto20.5

144.6Teleop55.7

63.1Endgame24.9

92Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	26
teleop	203	45
endgame	64	30
foul	5	0
total	359	101

Result

Final score

359 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Match videos

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