Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.92 – 206.56

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.3 ±10.5

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 33.27Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 71.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 51.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±10.4

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 90.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 75.7Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 40.74Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 71, 461, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 71, 461, 5010

Auto

21.1 14%

Teleop

93.1 63%

Endgame

33.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 447, 829, 45

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 447, 829, 45

Auto

35.2 17%

Teleop

117.4 58%

Endgame

49.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.9pts

Blue projected score206.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.6
Score range: 133–231
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.3Season APEX323

21.1Auto35.2

93.1Teleop117.4

33.6Endgame49.4

7Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	30
teleop	42	98
endgame	21	62
foul	10	5
total	107	195

Result

Final score

107 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Match videos

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