Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.96 – 237.3

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

218 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.3 ±9.8

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 11.47Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 144.27Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 150.22Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.9 ±8.8

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 98.85Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 33.67Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 104.78Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10434, 3940, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

306 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 3940, 1501

Auto

75.8 25%

Teleop

158.6 53%

Endgame

66.7 22%

Strengths

· 1501 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7457, 2867, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7457, 2867, 4272

Auto

37.1 16%

Teleop

135.2 59%

Endgame

58.1 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score306pts

Blue projected score237.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.7
Score range: 213–330
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.3Season APEX596.9

75.8Auto37.1

158.6Teleop135.2

66.7Endgame58.1

17Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	28
teleop	66	64
endgame	66	109
foul	15	20
total	218	221

Result

Final score

218 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 52.1 pts

Match videos

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