Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.3 – 149.6

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.3 ±10.5

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 32.93Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 71.46Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 51.91Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.6 ±10.5

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 69.51Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 63.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 16.51Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 71, 461, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 71, 461, 5010

Auto

23.8 16%

Teleop

90.4 61%

Endgame

33.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1024, 5402, 3147

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1024, 5402, 3147

Auto

39.9 29%

Teleop

74.4 53%

Endgame

24.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.3pts

Blue projected score149.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.7
Score range: 126–180
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.3Season APEX405.6

23.8Auto39.9

90.4Teleop74.4

33.8Endgame24.9

2Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	29
teleop	100	63
endgame	37	29
foul	15	25
total	157	146

Result

Final score

157 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 pts

Match videos

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