Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
95.49 – 100.29
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
78 – 169
Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 24.98Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 15.37Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.14Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239 ±14.4
Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 55.14Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 4.01Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 41.14Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3176, 8431, 2867
65
/ 100 compatProjected
95.5 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 3176, 8431, 2867
Auto
10.5 11%
Teleop
53.3 56%
Endgame
31.1 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3940, 9554, 3936
71
/ 100 compatProjected
100.3 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 3940, 9554, 3936
Auto
19.8 20%
Teleop
55.2 55%
Endgame
25.8 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score95.5pts
Blue projected score100.3pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -4.8
- Score range
- 78–117
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
266.4Season APEX239
10.5Auto19.8
53.3Teleop55.2
31.1Endgame25.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 46 |
| teleop | 49 | 96 |
| endgame | 11 | 27 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 78 | 169 |
Result
Final score
78 – 169
Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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