Qualification · Qualification 8
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
89.71 – 86.79
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
26 – 126
Prediction missed · off by 51.5 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.7 ±13.9
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 28.86Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 39.14Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 21.71Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.1 ±10.4
Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 29.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 48.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 8.29Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 328, 3865, 9530
64
/ 100 compatProjected
89.7 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 328, 3865, 9530
Auto
14.6 17%
Teleop
47.4 55%
Endgame
24.9 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 461, 5402, 45
61
/ 100 compatProjected
86.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 461, 5402, 45
Auto
11.6 14%
Teleop
53.8 63%
Endgame
20.3 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.52
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score89.7pts
Blue projected score86.8pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 2.9
- Score range
- 69–108
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
152.7Season APEX378.1
14.6Auto11.6
47.4Teleop53.8
24.9Endgame20.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 27 |
| teleop | 16 | 82 |
| endgame | 0 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 26 | 126 |
Result
Final score
26 – 126
Prediction missed · off by 51.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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