Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.43 – 83.89

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.6 ±8.8

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 58.74Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 105.46Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 72.23Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.3 ±12.8

2197Las Pumas

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 15.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8432Cyber Knights

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 1.34Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 67.31Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 7457, 461

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3494, 7457, 461

Auto

36.4 17%

Teleop

131.9 60%

Endgame

51.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2197, 8432, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2197, 8432, 3176

Auto

13.3 16%

Teleop

41.4 51%

Endgame

26.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236.4pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.5
Score range: 62–258
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 124.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.6Season APEX204.3

36.4Auto13.3

131.9Teleop41.4

51Endgame26.1

0Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	30
teleop	54	90
endgame	49	21
foul	5	0
total	120	141

Result

Final score

120 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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