Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.47 – 126.57

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.7 ±9.8

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 41.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 90.34Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 34.24Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±10.7

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 9.44Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 24.29Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 92.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 447, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5010, 447, 6721

Auto

22.3 14%

Teleop

98.6 64%

Endgame

32.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 135, 8431, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 135, 8431, 4272

Auto

21.5 19%

Teleop

66.5 57%

Endgame

27.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.5pts

Blue projected score126.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.9
Score range: 105–188
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 123.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.7Season APEX365.2

22.3Auto21.5

98.6Teleop66.5

32.9Endgame27.8

0Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	31
teleop	99	100
endgame	52	59
foul	5	10
total	190	200

Result

Final score

190 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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