Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.51 – 85.34

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401 ±10.5

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 70.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 63.46Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 17.95Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255 ±14.4

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 46.5Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3936RoboBlitz 3936

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 22.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 16.13Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1024, 5402, 9554

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1024, 5402, 9554

Auto

32.0 22%

Teleop

91.3 63%

Endgame

22.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1646, 3936, 3147

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1646, 3936, 3147

Auto

22.2 29%

Teleop

42.3 56%

Endgame

11.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.5pts

Blue projected score85.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.2
Score range: 63–174
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 124.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401Season APEX255

32Auto22.2

91.3Teleop42.3

22.5Endgame11.1

44Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	31
teleop	49	46
endgame	36	5
foul	30	10
total	161	92

Result

Final score

161 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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