Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.21 – 61.57

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.1 ±13.9

8432Cyber Knights

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 0.35Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 24.84Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 4.02Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.8 ±13.9

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 22.45Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 24.32Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 14.8Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8432, 328, 7477

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8432, 328, 7477

Auto

15.7 45%

Teleop

13.2 38%

Endgame

6.0 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1555, 8431, 9530

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1555, 8431, 9530

Auto

14.7 24%

Teleop

24.8 41%

Endgame

20.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.2pts

Blue projected score61.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.4
Score range: 6–85
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.1Season APEX137.8

15.7Auto14.7

13.2Teleop24.8

6Endgame20.7

64Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	18
teleop	28	37
endgame	24	9
foul	0	0
total	66	64

Result

Final score

66 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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