Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.9 – 156

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±11.7

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 133.75Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 65.99Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 21.16Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.3 ±9.8

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 55.92Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 42.41Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 57.67Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3940, 461, 8103

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3940, 461, 8103

Auto

42.5 20%

Teleop

129.4 60%

Endgame

44.0 20%

Strengths

· 3940 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9431, 9119, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

156 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9431, 9119, 3494

Auto

25.0 17%

Teleop

84.1 57%

Endgame

39.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score220.9pts

Blue projected score156pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.9
Score range: 134–243
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.2Season APEX367.3

42.5Auto25

129.4Teleop84.1

44Endgame39.7

77Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	23
teleop	168	84
endgame	75	61
foul	0	0
total	292	168

Result

Final score

292 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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