Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.22 – 94.28

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.6 ±9.9

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 38.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 91.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9554Portage Pythons

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 17.51Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.4 ±11.7

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 76.57Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 18.52Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -0.81Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5484, 4272, 9554

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5484, 4272, 9554

Auto

25.6 18%

Teleop

83.2 58%

Endgame

34.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1024, 3147, 10029

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1024, 3147, 10029

Auto

28.8 32%

Teleop

43.7 48%

Endgame

17.9 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.2pts

Blue projected score94.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 72–170
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.6Season APEX306.4

25.6Auto28.8

83.2Teleop43.7

34.3Endgame17.9

35Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	29
teleop	86	2
endgame	58	1
foul	0	15
total	173	47

Result

Final score

173 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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