Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.79 – 116.1

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.3 ±12.4

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX 1.66Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 18.38Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 135.75Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.6 ±11

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 36.3Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 44.85Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

71Team Hammond

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 34.95Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10029, 9530, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10029, 9530, 1501

Auto

38.5 25%

Teleop

77.7 49%

Endgame

40.8 26%

Strengths

· 1501 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2867, 1646, 71

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2867, 1646, 71

Auto

15.4 15%

Teleop

63.2 63%

Endgame

22.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.8pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.7
Score range: 94–178
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.3Season APEX288.6

38.5Auto15.4

77.7Teleop63.2

40.8Endgame22.4

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	18
teleop	52	43
endgame	37	23
foul	20	0
total	160	84

Result

Final score

160 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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