Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.95 – 23.79

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.5 ±11.2

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 80.08Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 55.55Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7477Giddy GOATS

Season APEX 33Event APEX 2.32Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±12.4

1555CryoFrost

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 19.8Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10411G-Code Generals

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 6.34Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -2.35Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1024, 461, 7477

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1024, 461, 7477

Auto

30.6 23%

Teleop

80.1 60%

Endgame

23.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1555, 10411, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1555, 10411, 135

Auto

11.6 63%

Teleop

1.8 10%

Endgame

5.0 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138pts

Blue projected score23.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.2
Score range: 2–160
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.5Season APEX177.5

30.6Auto11.6

80.1Teleop1.8

23.8Endgame5

79Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	5
teleop	91	32
endgame	40	13
foul	15	0
total	180	50

Result

Final score

180 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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