Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.09 – 106.67

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.3 ±11.2

8431Robo-Knights

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 21.73Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 43.82Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 36.54Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±12

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 104.58Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10029The Portotypes

Season APEX 21.3Event APEX -3.94Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3865Riley WildBots

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 6.03Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8431, 3494, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8431, 3494, 1646

Auto

20.7 23%

Teleop

43.9 49%

Endgame

25.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7457, 10029, 3865

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7457, 10029, 3865

Auto

17.9 19%

Teleop

62.9 66%

Endgame

14.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.1pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.6
Score range: 80–129
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.3Season APEX354.9

20.7Auto17.9

43.9Teleop62.9

25.4Endgame14.1

28Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	32
teleop	84	102
endgame	43	44
foul	35	0
total	181	178

Result

Final score

181 – 178

Prediction missed · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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