Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.91 – 110.78

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.4 ±11.7

9530John Adams Robotics

Season APEX 44.6Event APEX 18.74Rank 26Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 0.39Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 67.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310 ±11

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 4.13Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 54.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 51.74Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9530, 10434, 829

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9530, 10434, 829

Auto

26.6 30%

Teleop

42.5 48%

Endgame

19.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3147, 5402, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3147, 5402, 3176

Auto

23.7 22%

Teleop

76.2 71%

Endgame

6.9 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.9pts

Blue projected score110.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.9
Score range: 66–132
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.4Season APEX310

26.6Auto23.7

42.5Teleop76.2

19.9Endgame6.9

39Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	37
teleop	36	147
endgame	33	28
foul	10	5
total	100	217

Result

Final score

100 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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