Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.72 – 80.78

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.3 ±11.7

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 89.85Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 37.14Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10332Carroll Charger Robotics

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 11.73Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213 ±12.2

9453Mount Vernon Wildcats

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 13.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 37.38Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

328Penn Robotics Golden Rooks

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 29.88Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 447, 2867, 10332

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 447, 2867, 10332

Auto

21.6 15%

Teleop

81.1 58%

Endgame

36.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9453, 6721, 328

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9453, 6721, 328

Auto

27.1 40%

Teleop

32.2 47%

Endgame

8.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.7pts

Blue projected score80.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.9
Score range: 60–160
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 118.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.3Season APEX213

21.6Auto27.1

81.1Teleop32.2

36.8Endgame8.6

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	20
teleop	70	74
endgame	64	10
foul	15	0
total	162	104

Result

Final score

162 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 23.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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